Analysis on the supply pattern of Chinese alumina market in
inputtime: 2018-07-13 08:58
The first part is the balance of supply and demand of Chinese alumina
Over the past five years, the production of alumina in China has been increasing year by year. According to the data, the cumulative production of alumina in China reached 6.083 million tons from January to December 2016, an increase of 7.94 percent over the same period last year and an increase of 11.7 percentage points over the same period last year. The cause of the decline in alumina production year-on-year growth this year mainly has four points: first, in the fourth quarter of 2015 domestic alumina production scope of sex last into the first quarter of this year, the demand after production release and production time; Second, environmental protection supervision has been strengthened this year and heavy rains and floods have been frequent. Third, equipment upgrading and maintenance scope increase, affect alumina consumption; Fourth, new production of alumina slowed down.
The second part of China's alumina market import analysis
Data show that 1, 2016 - December alumina in China imported 3.026 million tonnes, down 34.97% over the previous year, including four alumina in China imported 787500 tons - August, down 56.99% year-on-year, reduce 1.0433 million tons from the same period a year earlier, its effect is equivalent to an enterprise production capacity of 12.5 million tons of large consumption of alumina production the impact of five months. From the analysis of import enterprises, this year and last year a great change and import strategy adjustment is obvious. There are four major imports over the same period imports, in 550000 tons, up and down but before August 4-2016 top ten enterprise imports for 731000 tons, in the same period last year the value is 1.2703 million tons, differ greatly. As domestic alumina price hikes, overseas alumina price one by one, and find, as of the end of December in Australia alumina FOB price rises to 346-351 dollars/tons, Australia alumina CIF price up to 361-366 dollars/ton. Zhuochuang thinks the internal and external price linkage supports the price of overseas alumina.
In recent years, China's dependence on foreign alumina has gradually decreased, mainly due to the rapid rise of domestic alumina self-sufficiency, and China has gradually transformed from a country dependent on alumina imports to an exporter. According to zhuo and the monitoring data, 2005-2006 China's import dependence of alumina in 34% 46%, and this period is also the starting point of our consumption of alumina enterprises acceleration of building, then within five years, China's import dependence of alumina gradually fall from 21% to 6% or so, and since 2011, most of the time, degree of foreign dependence of alumina in China at 10% and below, by the year 2016, external dependence and lack of 5% alumina in China.
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